30 Jul 2010 | Business

Rational Optimism - Prospects for Global Economic Growth & Investment Markets 

Rational Optimism - Prospects for Global Economic Growth & Investment Markets
Transcript (pdf) Comments (2)

Confessions of an unreformed optimist

In the first of a series of fund manager opinion pieces, James Anderson Chief Investment Officer at Baillie Gifford, sets out his personal and very optimistic views on the prospects for global economic growth and investment markets.   The views expressed are not necessarily those of Baillie Gifford as a whole.

Many observers have adopted a negative stance on this topic recently and voiced concerns that the Chinese economy is at risk of overheating, with a bubble in the housing market the major threat. The arguments set out by James Anderson in this article discuss the reasons behind his contradictory view.

Initially written for professional clients, this specialist and sometimes technical article is intended to stimulate thought and provoke debate.  We thought it would be worth sharing with our retail clients from an informative and educational point of view. Over the coming months, we hope to bring you what we think will be a diverse range of personal views and opinion pieces from some of our other fund managers.

The views expressed in this article are those of the individual manager and should not be considered as advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a particular investment.  They reflect personal opinion and should not be taken as statements of fact nor should any reliance be placed on them when making investment decisions. 

As with any stock market investment, there are no guarantees.  Ongoing market conditions and currency exchange rates will affect the value of an investment and any income from it.  Investors should be prepared to accept the risk they may not get back the full amount invested.

Emerging markets such as China are generally considered to be higher risk than the main international markets due to the likelihood of greater fluctuations in stock value.

The investment trusts managed by Baillie Gifford are UK public limited companies and are not authorised or regulated by the Financial Services Authority. 

You can download the full article here.


Author: James Anderson
James graduated with a BA in Modern History from Oxford University and after postgraduate study in Italy and Canada, he gained an MA in International Affairs in 1982.  He joined Baillie Gifford in 1983 and became a Partner in 1987.  James headed our European Equities Investment Team until July 2003 when he became Head of our Long Term Global Growth Team.  He is a member of the Investment Policy Committee.

 

 

 

Comments

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Well argued and expressed. Taking a long term view will, at some point, require an answer to the question "Can an ever expanding world economy continue within the limits of a finite world?" None of us know the answer to this but if the world economy grows at just 2% pa it will be 16 times bigger in 2100. Does this sound possible? Take a look at Prof. Tim Jackson's talk at http://wheelercentre.com/videos/tag/deakins-2010/. and consider.

C M Beal

A really excellent Vision , and well structured perspective. -authored by someone who can look ahead from a good vantage point!

john beattie

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